Observations on the urban shutout of Conservatives in Election 2006

In 2004, criticism persisted about Conservatives who failed to win seats in Canadian cities save Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon and St. John's. Well, how did the Conservatives do in 2006? Both St. John's districts returned Tory incumbents. Charlottetown, Fredericton, Halifax, Moncton, and Saint John took a pass at Conservative candidates. Tories won four seats in the Greater Quebec City Area: Charlebourg, Lévis, Louis-Hébert and Louis-Saint-Laurent; but none in urban Gatineau, Montreal, Trois-Rivières or Sherbrooke. In Eastern Ontario, Tories won five out of eight City of Ottawa seats, Brockville, Cornwall, Pembroke but lost three downtown Ottawa seats and Kingston. In the Greater Toronto Area, Tories took nil in the Cities of Toronto, Ajax-Pickering, Brampton, Markham, Missisauga, and Vaughn; only one ex-urban riding, York-Simcoe, out of seven in York Region; another one exurb, Dufferin-Caledon, in Peel Region; and in a best showing, three out of four in Durham Region. In Durham, only Whitby can be considered part of the GTA; the other is the exurb, Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge; Oshawa is not really part of the GTA, is it? Just outside the GTA, Tories won in Ancaster, Barrie, Burlington, Cambridge, Milton, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, and the two suburban/exurban ridings surrounding Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo respectively, but lost in Guelph, Hamilton, Kitchener, Oakville, Waterloo, and Welland. In southwestern and northern Ontario, Tories were shut out of London and Windsor, Sudbury and Thunder Bay respectively. In Manitoba, Conservatives won two Winnipeg seats: Winnipeg South and Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia. In Saskatchewan and Alberta, Tories swept all three Saskatoon and three out four Regina, all eight Calgary and all eight Edmonton seats. In British Columbia, Conservatives won in Kamloops, Kelowna and Penticton; however, the Tory seats in Greater Vancouver are suburban Delta-Richmond East, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam and Fleetwood-Port Kells and in the suburban-exurban Lower Mainland. If Prime Minister-designate Stephen Harper made any breakthroughs in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Missisauga, Brampton or York Region, the Conservatives could have better elected representatives from urban areas, and evidently, more seats in the next minority government.