2006/01/30

Next time for the Conservatives

The Conservatives have to ask themselves how to win the next general election and form a majority government. If one needs 155 Conservative candidates elected and have only 124 Conservative MPs, from where will the thirty-one come? From British Columbia? Unlikely with the apparently perpetual three-way races to continue as long as voters show favour to the NDP. From the Prairie provinces? Unlikely, Conservatives are "max'd out" in the West. So, the bottom line: Conservatives need to squeeze ten more from Atlantic Canada, difficult but possible; ten from Quebec, improbable; and ten from rural Ontario; or some mix of the three. Otherwise, yes, the Conservatives need to win elections in the Greater Toronto Area, the Montreal Urban Community and Metro Vancouver. If not, we will have to get used to more minority governments. Or in another way to look at it, get used to more city-hall-style politics in Parliament in Ottawa where opportunistic politicians trade votes for projects and policies.

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