Next time for the Conservatives

The Conservatives have to ask themselves how to win the next general election and form a majority government. If one needs 155 Conservative candidates elected and have only 124 Conservative MPs, from where will the thirty-one come? From British Columbia? Unlikely with the apparently perpetual three-way races to continue as long as voters show favour to the NDP. From the Prairie provinces? Unlikely, Conservatives are "max'd out" in the West. So, the bottom line: Conservatives need to squeeze ten more from Atlantic Canada, difficult but possible; ten from Quebec, improbable; and ten from rural Ontario; or some mix of the three. Otherwise, yes, the Conservatives need to win elections in the Greater Toronto Area, the Montreal Urban Community and Metro Vancouver. If not, we will have to get used to more minority governments. Or in another way to look at it, get used to more city-hall-style politics in Parliament in Ottawa where opportunistic politicians trade votes for projects and policies.

Comparison of future Conservative and Liberal leadership races

If you read my previous post, you may get the sense that it is not worthwhile to run for Liberal leadership. However, there is always the chance to become prime minister if the new Liberal leader manages to defeat the Conservative government. On the other hand, next Monday Prime Minister-designate Stephen Harper will form his Conservative government. All his cabinet ministers will have political experience in the opposition benches or have served in provincial governments. The Harper ministry will be a pool of talent as these ministers mature in their jobs. Remember the Harper ministery will also be younger than most of the Liberal leadership candidates. The steps to build the Conservative Party to greatness will be easier than any steps required to rejuvenate the Liberal Party. What will be interesting to see is whether the Liberal Party can rebuild in eastern Quebec, formerly represented by Marc-Yvan Coté and Jean Pelletier. The former was expelled from the Liberal Party and the latter was fired from the Liberal Government by Prime Minister Paul Martin. Whether a Liberal parliamentary caucus of Ontario MPs is any better than a Conservative caucus of western MPs to expand beyond its base. Whether the Liberal Party of Canada will either renew itself with new ideas and bold policies like what Mike Harris did with the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario or rebuild more slowly and wait for the voting public to be tired of conservative governments like what Dalton McGuinty did with the Liberal Party of Ontario. Time will tell.

Manley and McKenna out of Liberal leadership race

Former Liberal Deputy Prime Minister John Manley and former New Brunswick Liberal Premier Frank McKenna bowed out and declined to compete to succeed Liberal Leader Paul Martin. Seems like first-rank Liberal stars do not want to dirty their hands in opposition politics. These two have been there at high levels of government and have tasted lives as retired politicians working as highly paid advisors to businesses. Manley was on the board of directors of Nortel; McKenna was chairman of the board of CanWest Global. Campaigning to be leader of the Liberal Party of Canada is not worth as much as it used to be. Winning would be difficult and would consume mind, body, soul--and time and money. Besides, winning no longer means getting to be prime minister. No, Manley and McKenna have better things to do. There is the A-Team of Liberal stars of Manley, McKenna, Rock and Tobin. We will have to wait for former Attorney General Allan Rock and former Newfoundland Premier Brian Tobin to make their decisions. Then, things become more interesting in the Liberal parliamentary caucus. Is Ralph Goodale too tainted to be interim leader or to run for leader? Will persistent rumours about Bill Graham's sexuality rule him out as interim leader? If politicians are not suitable, will former university professors Stephane Dion, Irvin Cotler, Michael Ignatieff and Anne McClellan put their names forward? Will second-tier Liberal operatives be the only contenders for leader? Will novice Liberals with fewer than five years of Liberal Party membership the only Liberals to run for leader, new Liberals like David Emerson, Scott Brison, Keith Martin, Belinda Stronach, Ken Dryden?

In case you are reading ...

The previous political commentaries dwelled more on facts and opinions. It's o.k. More opinions to come on Warren Kinsella's thesis of "Tim Hortons vs. Starbucks" and Fortress Liberal in the GTA.

More speculations on PM-designate Harper's ministry

So, February 6th will be the date the designate becomes Prime Minister Harper in Rideau Hall. That's when the Hon. Mr. Harper become the Right Honourable. (The honourific "Honourable" denotes membership to the Queen's Privy Council of Canada. Prime Minister Martin's government in 2004 conferred it to Mr. Harper as he was Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.) Anyway, the Toronto Star on January 27th had a biographical article on Lawrence Cannon as a Conservative Member of Parliament with previous cabinet experience. Now if past provincial cabinet membership makes a MP suitable to serve in Prime Minister Harper's ministry, then the following people will have the odds in favour. Loyal Hearn (M.P., St. John's South-Mount Pearl) was a former education minister of Newfoundland. Lawrence Cannon (M.P., Pontiac) was a former communication minister of Québec. John Baird (M.P., Ottawa West-Nepean) was successively Minister of Community and Social Services, Government Whip and Minister of Energy in Ontario. Jim Flaherty (M.P., Whitby-Oshawa) served in the Ontario Government as Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance, Minister of Enterprise, Opportunity and Innovation, the Attorney General and Minister Responsible for Native Affairs, Minister of Labour, and Solicitor General and Minister of Correctional Services in various times. Tony Clement (M.P., Parry Sound-Muskoka) was Ontario Minister of Health, Minister of Municipal Affairs & Housing, Minister of Environment and Minister of Transportation. Vic Toews (M.P., Provencher) was Minister of Labour, and the Attorney General and Minister of Justice for the Province of Manitoba. Brian Pallister (M.P., Portage-Lisgar) was Manitoba Minister of Government Services. Stockwell Day (M.P., Okanagan-Coquihalla, B.C.) was Chief Whip, Government House Leader, Minister of Labour, Minister of Social Services, and Provincial Treasurer (Minister of Finance) and acting Premier of Alberta. Finally, the following people were former Conservative cabinet ministers in the governments of Prime Ministers Mulroney and Campbell. Serving in Prime Minister Mulroney's government were current B.C. Senator Gerry St. Germain who was Minister of State (Transport) and Minister of Forestry, B.C. Senator Pat Carney who was Minister of Energy, Mines and Resources, Minister of International Trade and President of the Treasury Board, and current Québec Senator Andrée Champagne who was Minister of State for Youth. Serving in Prime Minister Campbell's government were Hon. Rob Nicholson (M.P., Niagara Falls, Ontario) who was Minister of Science and Small Business and Hon. Garth Turner (M.P, Halton, Ontario) who was Minister of National Revenue. The following people are also notable. Senator John Buchanan was Premier of Nova Scotia. Senator Hugh Segal was Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Mulroney and Associate Secretary of the Ontario Cabinet in Premier Bill Davis's government. Ontario Senator Majory LeBreton worked for over thirty-one years in the service of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada and four of its National Leaders, the Rt. Hon. John G. Diefenbaker, Hon. Robert L. Stanfield, Prime Minister Joe Clark and Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.

On Tories who ran as Liberals in 2006

All in all, these turncoats were reelected most of the time. Matthews in Newfoundland, Brison in Nova Scotia, Stronach in Ontario, Martin in British Columbia. Gary Carr lost reelection in Halton. Bruck Easton could not get elected as either Progressive Conservative or Liberal.

Observations on the urban shutout of Conservatives in Election 2006

In 2004, criticism persisted about Conservatives who failed to win seats in Canadian cities save Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon and St. John's. Well, how did the Conservatives do in 2006? Both St. John's districts returned Tory incumbents. Charlottetown, Fredericton, Halifax, Moncton, and Saint John took a pass at Conservative candidates. Tories won four seats in the Greater Quebec City Area: Charlebourg, Lévis, Louis-Hébert and Louis-Saint-Laurent; but none in urban Gatineau, Montreal, Trois-Rivières or Sherbrooke. In Eastern Ontario, Tories won five out of eight City of Ottawa seats, Brockville, Cornwall, Pembroke but lost three downtown Ottawa seats and Kingston. In the Greater Toronto Area, Tories took nil in the Cities of Toronto, Ajax-Pickering, Brampton, Markham, Missisauga, and Vaughn; only one ex-urban riding, York-Simcoe, out of seven in York Region; another one exurb, Dufferin-Caledon, in Peel Region; and in a best showing, three out of four in Durham Region. In Durham, only Whitby can be considered part of the GTA; the other is the exurb, Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge; Oshawa is not really part of the GTA, is it? Just outside the GTA, Tories won in Ancaster, Barrie, Burlington, Cambridge, Milton, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, and the two suburban/exurban ridings surrounding Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo respectively, but lost in Guelph, Hamilton, Kitchener, Oakville, Waterloo, and Welland. In southwestern and northern Ontario, Tories were shut out of London and Windsor, Sudbury and Thunder Bay respectively. In Manitoba, Conservatives won two Winnipeg seats: Winnipeg South and Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia. In Saskatchewan and Alberta, Tories swept all three Saskatoon and three out four Regina, all eight Calgary and all eight Edmonton seats. In British Columbia, Conservatives won in Kamloops, Kelowna and Penticton; however, the Tory seats in Greater Vancouver are suburban Delta-Richmond East, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam and Fleetwood-Port Kells and in the suburban-exurban Lower Mainland. If Prime Minister-designate Stephen Harper made any breakthroughs in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Missisauga, Brampton or York Region, the Conservatives could have better elected representatives from urban areas, and evidently, more seats in the next minority government.

My predictions of Prime Minister-designate's ministry

Based on a tradition of at least one minister per province where possible. Newfoundland: Hearn. Nova Scotia: MacKay. New Brunswick: Thompson. The PEI portfolio be taken over by one of the above. Quebec: Cannon (Outaouais) and Verner (Quebec City). Eastern Ontario: Baird. Northern Ontario: Clement. Toronto portfolio be taken over by Van Loan. Central Ontario: Reid and Flaherty. Southwestern Ontario: Finley. Manitoba: Toews. Saskatchewan: Skelton. Edmonton: Ambrose and Rajotte. Calgary: Harper and Kenney. Rural Alberta: Mills and Solberg. British Columbia: Day, Hill, Moore, Strahl.

Observations in Eastern Ontario results

Wow! Tory MPs who are francophones from outside Quebec! Three of them! Galipeau is leading in Ottawa-Orléans and Lauzon and Lemieux won in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry. Tories won both Nepean seats, and in Kanata, Brockville, Pembroke, except Kingston. Rurally, Tories won the Ottawa Valley, the St. Lawrence Valley and west to including Coburg.

Observations of GTA election results

Well, the 2006 General Election did not help the Conservatives in the GTA. Tories did better in Durham Region than in Peel Region, Megacity Toronto, and York Region. In Durham, Carrie and Oda won again in Oshawa and Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge; Flaherty was the victor in Whitby-Oshawa. In York Region, Van Loan (York-Simcoe) is the only Tory who won, while in Peel Region, Tilson (Dufferin-Caledon) is the lone Tory MP. No Conservative won in Toronto, Missisauga, Brampton, Pickering, Ajax, Vaughn, Markham, or Newmarket. In Halton Region, Chong (Wellington-Halton Hills), Turner (Halton), Wallace (Burlington) won. Out of all of these MP-designates, Flaherty, Oda, Van Loan may get cabinet posts. Van Loan may become the minister responsible for Toronto--if Prime Minister-designate Harper does not keep this portfolio.

Prime Minister Martin conceded defeat, resigned as party leader

Well, the Prime Minister spoke on national television at midnight. Who is left in the new hundred-plus Liberal caucus in Parliament and who are the darkhorses in the party? From Atlantic Canada, former ministers Brison, MacAuley, Regan, Scott, Thibault will be players. Will Ambassador McKenna and former premier Tobin run? From Quebec, is there a Liberal team left, let alone, a Liberal brain trust? Ministers Lapierre and Robillard, who had roots as former ministers in the Turner and Bourassa governments prior to joining Chretien-Martin, will be players. Former minister Coderre used to be Quebec wing president of the Liberal Party. Will Ministers Cutler and Dion, former professors, return to academia part-time? Will retired MP Martin Cauchon run for leader? From Ontario, will former Deputy Prime Minister Manley run? Who will Premier McGuinty support? Within the Liberal caucus, watch for Bevilacqua, Ignatieff, and Volpe. In Manitoba, will minister Alcock keep his seat? In the Prairies, watch who Goodale and McLellan will endorse. Will they run themselves? In British Columbia, will Dosanjh and Emerson run for the Liberal leadership?

Reaction to 2006 General Elections

It's just before midnight and none of the party leader has spoken. So, no comment yet on potential parliamentary machinations. Only my reaction to races won and lost. Newfoundland (7 seats): 4 Liberals to 3 Conservatives. Tories gained one by winning the open seat in Avalon. Nova Scotia (11 seats): 6 Liberals, 3 Conservatives, 2 New Democrats. No change from 2004. Prince Edward Island (4 seats): 4 Liberals. No change from 2004. New Brunswick (10 seats): 6 Liberals, 3 Conservatives, 1 New Democrat. Liberals kept the open seat in Moncton. Tories gained a seat in Tobique-Mactaquac, defeating the Liberal Caucus Chairperson. Atlantic Canada: 16 Liberals, 9 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats. Two Liberal incumbents (Matthews and Brison) who used to be Progressive Conservative M.P. were reelected.

Honeymoon Journal V: Back to Canada

Sunrise in Florida was a pretty sight although it was cold at 9 degrees Celsius in Port Everglades Sunday morning. Disembarkation from "Star Princess" was quick and efficient. At the Ft. Lauderdale International Airport, Bibiana and I were the first to check our luggage with WestJet. Then, it's back to -9 degrees in Toronto with additional wind chill. Many thanks go to our relatives and friends for best wishes, cards, cash gifts, presents, photographs, and already, a video clip. Once our photographer is ready, we will receive proofs (of his digital shots) in a website which you will have access. So, the honeymoon is over, and soon enough, it's back to work.

Honeymoon Journal IV: Days 3 and 4

Bibiana and I went ashore on Days 3 and 4 in the West Indies. First stop was Georgetown in Grand Cayman Island. It is the capital of the Cayman Islands and a duty-free port. Where Cozumel is great for buying diamonds and gems, Georgetown is an excellent location to buy watches. Bibi and I discovered a new line of National Geographic Society watches with a scratch-free sapphire cover. Its first release was in Grand Cayman, and at the moment, it is available elsewhere in Las Vegas only. Discounted price: $620. Our impression is that Grand Cayman is very commercialized. Another notable fact is the number of expatriate Canadians working there. The next day Bibi and I were able to step off the gangway onto land for the first time in Montego Bay, Jamaica. Compared to Georgetown, Montego Bay is buzzing with more than tourist activites. In the second largest city of Jamaica, we passed by uniformed school children, a public library, beach clubs, beachfront resorts, hillside condos, and the airport. We checked out the "Hip Strip" and sailed in a catamaran for three hours. The crew of the catamaran "Island Dreamer" served us well. Bibi knew the owners of Dreamer Catamaran Cruises. The owners' niece, Laura, is a good friend who gave this sailing as a wedding gift. Bibi and I had lots of fun snorkeling and swimming, drinking and dancing; and Bibi had a foot massage. Afterwards, Laura treated us to lunch and drove us around town. The three of us went shopping locally for rum cakes, hot sauce, Jamaica rum and cream liquers. We thank Laura from the bottom of our hearts. Cheers!

Honeymoon Journal III: Thoughts on Day 2

Today was around 23 C, warm and humid. The tourist area in Cozumel had been rebuilt; however, the docks were not ready for multiple cruise ships. Star Princess anchored off the island and passengers boarded tenders to go ashore. These tenders had capacities to ferry hundreds and had A/C. Bibiana and I booked an excursion to Tulum. So, our tender bypasses Cozumel and went to Playa del Carmen. From there it's off to Tulum. The Mayan civilization consisted of many towns and villages in present day Central America. In all, ruins were found in sixty-nine sites in Belize, Chiapas (Mexico), El Salvador, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico), including Cozumel. In Mexico, Mayan ruin are federal property. You cannot smoke, and have to pay a copyright fee when you bring in camcorders. Tulum is famous because it's situated by the sea. The temple was visible from the sea and the Maya in Tulum had guard towers and lookouts. Bibi and I had a guided tour with a knowledgeable interpreter who brought fascimiles of drawings from the National Geographic Society and spoke of Mayan village life, hierarchy, calendar and time, math and the afterlife. Chocolate, comes from the Mayan "Choco" (hot) and "Atl" (drink). Tomato comes from Tom and Atl. The theme of Dining on Day 2 was Italian. So we had pasta and minestrone soup. For a place offering various bars, buffets, grills, and restaurant, it lacks Chinese Food. So far, there were choices of congee for breakfast, spring roll as appetizers, sushi for lunch, and stir fried vegi and wanton soup for dinner. At least there was white rice.

Honeymoon Journal II: Thoughts on starting Day 1

Saturday was a great day. Four months of Bibiana's planning yielded an excellent event with much assistance from Clara, her sister. Clara was the maid of honour, wedding coordinator, and mistress of ceremony at the banquet. I am very grateful for Clara's help. My best man, Stephen, gave up most of the weekend for me. He decorated the car with my brother-in-law, Geoffrey. Stephen was the chauffeur, keeper of the wedding rings and private photographer with my camera; in addition, he waited on me thoughout my wedding day. Thank you, Stephen. Sunday was a continuation of a previously busy wedding day. Bibiana and I caught some sleep in the flight to Ft. Lauderdale. Seventeen dollars later, the cab took us to Port Everglades. At 951 feet in length, "Star Princess" has a gross tonnage of 109 000 and 17 floors. Our stateroom is situated conveniently close to elevators, stairs and the laudromat. My favourite is a stateroom with a balcony. Even with a reported cold spell in the Atlantic coast of Florida, we left the balcony door open and let the breeze in. The balcony is of a fair size with enough room for four chairs and two tables. When we checked in and looked out, a pod of four manatees swam by. We napped after lunch at 15:30 and slept through the ship's departure with horns screaming. Dinner took place in an anytime dining room around 20:30. Service was excellent. My dinner was mediocre--the medium rare prime rib came medium--while Bibiana's dinner was good. The self-exploration of the ship around 23:00 was opportune because most guests were inside watching shows or in their staterooms. There was no crowds which made photography easier. We found the cinema which was playing "Must Love Dogs." I have always enjoyed the actor John Cusack and this romantic comedy did not disappoint. Other places of interest were the moonscape with bright stars, the wedding chapel, the gym, the snorkeling pool (they give lessons here) and the art auction pieces on display. It's Monday morning now, another cruising day. We are crossing the Caribbean Sea at 15 knots. I shall report on Monday's activities next time. Tuesday morning we shall arrive at Cozumel, Mexico. Cheers!

Honeymoon Journal I: Embarkation

Well, this is my first attempt at putting thoughts in the WWW in realtime. Here goes. The wedding banquet was enjoyed by all. Bibiana and I left therestaurant at 00:45 and didn't sleep all night ;-) The next morningwe flew two and a half hours to Fort Lauderdale, FL, where the airporthas numerous tropical aquariums and the highways and streets look veryclean. It was a sunny day. We boarded our ship "Star Princess", hadour first real sit-down meal in the ship after 24 hours of weddingevents, and took a nap. This is our first trip to Florida and firstcruise and we find the ship well amended. It's nice to start to restand relax for the next seven days. That's all for now. Good night.